Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Interactions between accumulation of trace elements and macronutrients in Salix caprea after inoculation with rhizosphere microorganisms

Although the beneficial effects on growth and trace element accumulation in Salix spp. inoculated with microbes are well known, little information is available on the interactions among trace elements and macronutrients. The main purpose of this study was to assess the effect of phytoaugmentation with the rhizobacteria Agromyces sp., Streptomyces sp., and the combination of each of them with the fungus Cadophora finlandica on biomass production and the accumulation of selected trace elements (Zn, Cd, Fe) and macronutrients (Ca, K, P and Mg) in Salix caprea grown on a moderately polluted soil. Dry matter production was significantly enhanced only upon inoculation with Agromyces sp. Regarding the phytoextraction of Cd and Zn, shoot concentrations were mostly increased after inoculation with Streptomyces sp. and Agromyces sp. + C. finlandica. These two treatments also showed higher translocation factors from roots to the leaves for both Cd and Zn. The accumulation of Cd and Zn in shoots was related to increased concentrations of K. This suggests that microorganisms that contribute to enhanced phytoextraction of Cd and Zn affect also the solubility and thus phytoavailability of K. This study suggests that the phytoextraction of Zn and Cd can be improved by inoculation with selected microbial strains.     

Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Monitoring of hexabromocyclododecane diastereomers in fish from European freshwaters and estuaries

Background and aims  

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a brominated flame retardant used mainly in polystyrene foam as well as in textile applications. In recent years, measures were taken to reduce HBCD emissions during its production and use. To evaluate the efficacy of these measures, a monitoring project was initiated with fish as bioaccumulation indicators.     

A comparison of statistical methods for deriving freshwater quality criteria for the protection of aquatic organisms

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly used in both ecological risk assessment and derivation of water quality criteria. However, there has been debate about the choice of an appropriate approach for derivation of water quality criteria based on SSDs because the various methods can generate different values. The objective of this study was to compare the differences among various methods. Data sets of acute toxicities of 12 substances to aquatic organisms, representing a range of classes with different modes of action, were studied. Nine typical statistical approaches, including parametric and nonparametric methods, were used to construct SSDs for 12 chemicals. Water quality criteria, expressed as hazardous concentration for 5 % of species (HC₅), were derived by use of several approaches. All approaches produced comparable results, and the data generated by the different approaches were significantly correlated. Variability among estimates of HC₅ of all inclusive species decreased with increasing sample size, and variability was similar among the statistical methods applied. Of the statistical methods selected, the bootstrap method represented the best-fitting model for all chemicals, while log-triangle and Weibull were the best models among the parametric methods evaluated. The bootstrap method was the primary choice to derive water quality criteria when data points are sufficient (more than 20). If the available data are few, all other methods should be constructed, and that which best describes the distribution of the data was selected.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Chemical composition of the slippery epicuticular wax blooms on Macaranga (Euphorbiaceae) ant-plants

Summary. The stems of many Macaranga ant-plants (Euphorbiaceae) are covered by epicuticular wax crystals rendering the surface very slippery for most insects. These wax blooms act as selective barriers protecting the symbiotic ant partners, which are specialized “wax-runners”, against the competition of other ants. Glaucous stems occur almost exclusively among the ant-plants of the genus Macaranga (). We analyzed the cuticular lipids of 16 Macaranga species by GC-MS and investigated the wax crystal morphology using SEM. Presence of crystalline wax blooms was strongly correlated with high concentrations (52%–88%) of triterpenoids. In contrast epicuticular waxes of glossy Macaranga surfaces contained only 0% to 36% of these dominant components. Therefore we conclude that triterpenoids are responsible for the formation of the thread-like Macaranga wax crystals. In all Macaranga ant-plants investigated, the principal components were epitaraxerol and taraxerone accompanied by smaller portions of taraxerol, β-amyrin and friedelin. Only in the case of the non-myrmecophytic M. tanarius did β-amyrin predominate. Moreover, we found that only in M. tanarius, the dense wax crystal lacework is torn into large mosaic-like pieces in the course of secondary stem diameter growth. Both chemical and macroscopic differences may contribute to a reduced slipperiness of M. tanarius stems and appear to be functionally important. The distribution of wax crystals and their composition amongst different sections of the genus suggests that glaucousness is a polyphyletic character within Macaranga. Received 7 October 1999; accepted 3 December 1999     

Exemplifying whole-plant ozone uptake in adult forest trees of contrasting species and site conditions

Whole-tree O3 uptake was exemplified for Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Larix decidua in stands at high and low altitude and contrasting water availability through sap flow measurement in tree trunks, intrinsically accounting for drought and boundary layer effects on O3 flux. O3 uptake of evergreen spruce per unit foliage area was enhanced by 100% at high relative to low elevation, whereas deciduous beech and larch showed similar uptake regardless of altitude. The responsiveness of the canopy conductance to water vapor and, as a consequence, O3 uptake to soil moisture and air humidity did not differ between species. Unifying findings at the whole-tree level will promote cause-effect based O3 risk assessment and modeling.